{
  "version": "1.1",
  "as_of": "2026-10-20",
  "description": "GD conditional estimates and sensitivity cases, not observed performance or validated personal predictions.",
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "GD-M-1",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0585",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.34,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.34,
      "p_t3": 0.6599999999999999,
      "p_t4": 0,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0,
      "expected_strokes": 2.6599999999999997,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-2",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0585",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.34,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.34,
      "p_t3": 0.6599999999999999,
      "p_t4": 0,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0,
      "expected_strokes": 2.6599999999999997,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-3",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0585",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.34,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.1,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.34,
      "p_t3": 0.594,
      "p_t4": 0.06599999999999999,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.06599999999999999,
      "expected_strokes": 2.726,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-4",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0585",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.34,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.1,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.34,
      "p_t3": 0.594,
      "p_t4": 0.04949999999999999,
      "p_t5": 0.016499999999999997,
      "p_tge4": 0.06599999999999999,
      "expected_strokes": 2.7425,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-5",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0585",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.34,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.25,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.34,
      "p_t3": 0.49499999999999994,
      "p_t4": 0.16499999999999998,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.16499999999999998,
      "expected_strokes": 2.825,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-6",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0585",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.34,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.25,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.34,
      "p_t3": 0.49499999999999994,
      "p_t4": 0.12374999999999999,
      "p_t5": 0.041249999999999995,
      "p_tge4": 0.16499999999999998,
      "expected_strokes": 2.86625,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-7",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0585",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.34,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.5,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.34,
      "p_t3": 0.32999999999999996,
      "p_t4": 0.32999999999999996,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.32999999999999996,
      "expected_strokes": 2.9899999999999998,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-8",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0585",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.34,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.5,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.34,
      "p_t3": 0.32999999999999996,
      "p_t4": 0.24749999999999997,
      "p_t5": 0.08249999999999999,
      "p_tge4": 0.32999999999999996,
      "expected_strokes": 3.0725,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-9",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0586",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.27,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.27,
      "p_t3": 0.73,
      "p_t4": 0,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0,
      "expected_strokes": 2.73,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-10",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0586",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.27,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.27,
      "p_t3": 0.73,
      "p_t4": 0,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0,
      "expected_strokes": 2.73,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-11",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0586",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.27,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.1,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.27,
      "p_t3": 0.657,
      "p_t4": 0.073,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.073,
      "expected_strokes": 2.803,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-12",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0586",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.27,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.1,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.27,
      "p_t3": 0.657,
      "p_t4": 0.05474999999999999,
      "p_t5": 0.01825,
      "p_tge4": 0.073,
      "expected_strokes": 2.82125,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-13",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0586",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.27,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.25,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.27,
      "p_t3": 0.5475,
      "p_t4": 0.1825,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.1825,
      "expected_strokes": 2.9125,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-14",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0586",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.27,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.25,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.27,
      "p_t3": 0.5475,
      "p_t4": 0.136875,
      "p_t5": 0.045625,
      "p_tge4": 0.1825,
      "expected_strokes": 2.958125,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-15",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0586",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.27,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.5,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.27,
      "p_t3": 0.365,
      "p_t4": 0.365,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.365,
      "expected_strokes": 3.0949999999999998,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-16",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0586",
      "population": "scratch",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.27,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.5,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.27,
      "p_t3": 0.365,
      "p_t4": 0.27375,
      "p_t5": 0.09125,
      "p_tge4": 0.365,
      "expected_strokes": 3.18625,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-17",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0587",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.13,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.13,
      "p_t3": 0.87,
      "p_t4": 0,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0,
      "expected_strokes": 2.87,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-18",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0587",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.13,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.13,
      "p_t3": 0.87,
      "p_t4": 0,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0,
      "expected_strokes": 2.87,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-19",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0587",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.13,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.1,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.13,
      "p_t3": 0.783,
      "p_t4": 0.08700000000000001,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.08700000000000001,
      "expected_strokes": 2.957,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-20",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0587",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.13,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.1,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.13,
      "p_t3": 0.783,
      "p_t4": 0.06525,
      "p_t5": 0.021750000000000002,
      "p_tge4": 0.08700000000000001,
      "expected_strokes": 2.9787500000000002,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-21",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0587",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.13,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.25,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.13,
      "p_t3": 0.6525,
      "p_t4": 0.2175,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.2175,
      "expected_strokes": 3.0875000000000004,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-22",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0587",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.13,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.25,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.13,
      "p_t3": 0.6525,
      "p_t4": 0.163125,
      "p_t5": 0.054375,
      "p_tge4": 0.2175,
      "expected_strokes": 3.141875,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-23",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0587",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.13,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.5,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.13,
      "p_t3": 0.435,
      "p_t4": 0.435,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.435,
      "expected_strokes": 3.3049999999999997,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-24",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0587",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 0,
      "distance_high": 25,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.13,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.5,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.13,
      "p_t3": 0.435,
      "p_t4": 0.32625,
      "p_t5": 0.10875,
      "p_tge4": 0.435,
      "expected_strokes": 3.4137500000000003,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-25",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0588",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.07,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.07,
      "p_t3": 0.9299999999999999,
      "p_t4": 0,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0,
      "expected_strokes": 2.93,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-26",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0588",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.07,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.07,
      "p_t3": 0.9299999999999999,
      "p_t4": 0,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0,
      "expected_strokes": 2.93,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-27",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0588",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.07,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.1,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.07,
      "p_t3": 0.837,
      "p_t4": 0.093,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.093,
      "expected_strokes": 3.023,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-28",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0588",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.07,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.1,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.07,
      "p_t3": 0.837,
      "p_t4": 0.06975,
      "p_t5": 0.02325,
      "p_tge4": 0.093,
      "expected_strokes": 3.04625,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-29",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0588",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.07,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.25,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.07,
      "p_t3": 0.6975,
      "p_t4": 0.23249999999999998,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.23249999999999998,
      "expected_strokes": 3.1625000000000005,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-30",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0588",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.07,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.25,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.07,
      "p_t3": 0.6975,
      "p_t4": 0.174375,
      "p_t5": 0.058124999999999996,
      "p_tge4": 0.23249999999999998,
      "expected_strokes": 3.2206250000000005,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-31",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0588",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.07,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.5,
      "s": 0,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.07,
      "p_t3": 0.46499999999999997,
      "p_t4": 0.46499999999999997,
      "p_t5": 0,
      "p_tge4": 0.46499999999999997,
      "expected_strokes": 3.395,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-M-32",
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0588",
      "population": "provider bogey / 20 handicap",
      "distance_low": 25,
      "distance_high": 50,
      "lie": "greenside sand",
      "basis": "GD_conditional_scenario_not_observation",
      "u": 0.07,
      "c": 0,
      "r": 0.5,
      "s": 0.25,
      "support": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "p_t1": 0,
      "p_t2": 0.07,
      "p_t3": 0.46499999999999997,
      "p_t4": 0.34875,
      "p_t5": 0.11624999999999999,
      "p_tge4": 0.46499999999999997,
      "expected_strokes": 3.51125,
      "assumptions": "Published sand up/down anchor u. c=0 approximation. Tail parameters r and s varied, not empirically calibrated. T>=6 excluded by scenario, not impossible in golf."
    }
  ],
  "bounds": [
    {
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0585",
      "u": 0.34,
      "lower_mean_if_chipins_unknown": 2.32,
      "upper_mean_unrestricted": null,
      "lower_mean_if_c0": 2.66,
      "p_tge4_min": 0,
      "p_tge4_max": 0.6599999999999999,
      "note": "Exact information bound from only u and T positive integer; null upper mean means unbounded, not missing arithmetic."
    },
    {
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0586",
      "u": 0.27,
      "lower_mean_if_chipins_unknown": 2.46,
      "upper_mean_unrestricted": null,
      "lower_mean_if_c0": 2.73,
      "p_tge4_min": 0,
      "p_tge4_max": 0.73,
      "note": "Exact information bound from only u and T positive integer; null upper mean means unbounded, not missing arithmetic."
    },
    {
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0587",
      "u": 0.13,
      "lower_mean_if_chipins_unknown": 2.74,
      "upper_mean_unrestricted": null,
      "lower_mean_if_c0": 2.87,
      "p_tge4_min": 0,
      "p_tge4_max": 0.87,
      "note": "Exact information bound from only u and T positive integer; null upper mean means unbounded, not missing arithmetic."
    },
    {
      "anchor_record_id": "GD-AS-0588",
      "u": 0.07,
      "lower_mean_if_chipins_unknown": 2.86,
      "upper_mean_unrestricted": null,
      "lower_mean_if_c0": 2.93,
      "p_tge4_min": 0,
      "p_tge4_max": 0.9299999999999999,
      "note": "Exact information bound from only u and T positive integer; null upper mean means unbounded, not missing arithmetic."
    }
  ],
  "sparseEstimates": [
    {
      "name": "Paula Martin Sampedro (a)",
      "a": 2,
      "b": 4,
      "source": "AIG25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "scratch sand 0–25yd borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.34,
        "strength": 5
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.41111111111111115,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    },
    {
      "name": "Paula Martin Sampedro (a)",
      "a": 2,
      "b": 4,
      "source": "AIG25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "scratch sand 0–25yd borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.34,
        "strength": 20
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.3666666666666667,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    },
    {
      "name": "Paula Martin Sampedro (a)",
      "a": 2,
      "b": 4,
      "source": "AIG25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "historical pro 15yd sand borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.51,
        "strength": 5
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.5055555555555555,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    },
    {
      "name": "Carla Bernat Escuder (a)",
      "a": 0,
      "b": 1,
      "source": "AIG25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "scratch sand 0–25yd borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.34,
        "strength": 5
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.2833333333333334,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    },
    {
      "name": "Carla Bernat Escuder (a)",
      "a": 0,
      "b": 1,
      "source": "AIG25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "scratch sand 0–25yd borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.34,
        "strength": 20
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.3238095238095238,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    },
    {
      "name": "Carla Bernat Escuder (a)",
      "a": 0,
      "b": 1,
      "source": "AIG25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "historical pro 15yd sand borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.51,
        "strength": 5
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.425,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    },
    {
      "name": "Jeneath Wong (a)",
      "a": 2,
      "b": 4,
      "source": "AIG25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "scratch sand 0–25yd borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.34,
        "strength": 5
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.41111111111111115,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    },
    {
      "name": "Jeneath Wong (a)",
      "a": 2,
      "b": 4,
      "source": "AIG25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "scratch sand 0–25yd borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.34,
        "strength": 20
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.3666666666666667,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    },
    {
      "name": "Jeneath Wong (a)",
      "a": 2,
      "b": 4,
      "source": "AIG25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "historical pro 15yd sand borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.51,
        "strength": 5
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.5055555555555555,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    },
    {
      "name": "廣吉 優梨菜",
      "a": 1,
      "b": 1,
      "source": "JLPGA-NEC25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "scratch sand 0–25yd borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.34,
        "strength": 5
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.45,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    },
    {
      "name": "廣吉 優梨菜",
      "a": 1,
      "b": 1,
      "source": "JLPGA-NEC25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "scratch sand 0–25yd borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.34,
        "strength": 20
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.37142857142857144,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    },
    {
      "name": "廣吉 優梨菜",
      "a": 1,
      "b": 1,
      "source": "JLPGA-NEC25",
      "basis": "GD_borrowed_prior_estimate",
      "prior": {
        "label": "historical pro 15yd sand borrowed; distance mismatch possible",
        "mean": 0.51,
        "strength": 5
      },
      "posterior_mean": 0.5916666666666667,
      "note": "Beta-binomial conditional posterior mean under explicitly borrowed prior; not national elite average. No claim shots independent in real play; prior sensitivity dominates small N."
    }
  ],
  "transportEstimates": [
    {
      "id": "GD-LPGA25-363",
      "basis": "GD_transport_sensitivity_not_observation",
      "population": "LPGA women 2025, hypothetical conditional scrambling",
      "metric": "scrambling_par_or_better",
      "condition": "Scrambling from the Rough",
      "anchor_sources": [
        "LPGA25-REC",
        "PGA25-130",
        "PGA25-363"
      ],
      "lpga_annual": 0.562138297237635,
      "pga_annual": 0.5968198702938616,
      "pga_conditional": 0.5684954789584608,
      "formula": "expit(logit(LPGA annual)+logit(PGA condition)-logit(PGA annual)+delta)",
      "delta_sensitivity": [
        -0.25,
        0,
        0.25
      ],
      "point_under_shared_odds_contrast": 0.5332827731290188,
      "sensitivity_low": 0.4708651044894431,
      "sensitivity_high": 0.594675584979147,
      "quality_note": "Both tours use opportunity-weighted published rankings, not official PGA Tour Average. A transferred comparison, not LPGA observed condition data. Assumes same conditional-versus-overall log-odds contrast across tours despite course, distance/lie mixture and eligibility differences. Delta ±0.25 is analyst-chosen stress test, not confidence/credible interval or empirically justified coverage. Scrambling cannot be substituted for arbitrary P(T<=2)."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-LPGA25-366",
      "basis": "GD_transport_sensitivity_not_observation",
      "population": "LPGA women 2025, hypothetical conditional scrambling",
      "metric": "scrambling_par_or_better",
      "condition": "Scrambling from > 30 yards",
      "anchor_sources": [
        "LPGA25-REC",
        "PGA25-130",
        "PGA25-366"
      ],
      "lpga_annual": 0.562138297237635,
      "pga_annual": 0.5968198702938616,
      "pga_conditional": 0.3020196548788981,
      "formula": "expit(logit(LPGA annual)+logit(PGA condition)-logit(PGA annual)+delta)",
      "delta_sensitivity": [
        -0.25,
        0,
        0.25
      ],
      "point_under_shared_odds_contrast": 0.2728747260289308,
      "sensitivity_low": 0.2261663796452477,
      "sensitivity_high": 0.32517586257918524,
      "quality_note": "Both tours use opportunity-weighted published rankings, not official PGA Tour Average. A transferred comparison, not LPGA observed condition data. Assumes same conditional-versus-overall log-odds contrast across tours despite course, distance/lie mixture and eligibility differences. Delta ±0.25 is analyst-chosen stress test, not confidence/credible interval or empirically justified coverage. Scrambling cannot be substituted for arbitrary P(T<=2)."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-LPGA25-367",
      "basis": "GD_transport_sensitivity_not_observation",
      "population": "LPGA women 2025, hypothetical conditional scrambling",
      "metric": "scrambling_par_or_better",
      "condition": "Scrambling from 20-30 yards",
      "anchor_sources": [
        "LPGA25-REC",
        "PGA25-130",
        "PGA25-367"
      ],
      "lpga_annual": 0.562138297237635,
      "pga_annual": 0.5968198702938616,
      "pga_conditional": 0.5317544928419129,
      "formula": "expit(logit(LPGA annual)+logit(PGA condition)-logit(PGA annual)+delta)",
      "delta_sensitivity": [
        -0.25,
        0,
        0.25
      ],
      "point_under_shared_odds_contrast": 0.4962005817825692,
      "sensitivity_low": 0.4340863652029612,
      "sensitivity_high": 0.5584322975738217,
      "quality_note": "Both tours use opportunity-weighted published rankings, not official PGA Tour Average. A transferred comparison, not LPGA observed condition data. Assumes same conditional-versus-overall log-odds contrast across tours despite course, distance/lie mixture and eligibility differences. Delta ±0.25 is analyst-chosen stress test, not confidence/credible interval or empirically justified coverage. Scrambling cannot be substituted for arbitrary P(T<=2)."
    },
    {
      "id": "GD-LPGA25-369",
      "basis": "GD_transport_sensitivity_not_observation",
      "population": "LPGA women 2025, hypothetical conditional scrambling",
      "metric": "scrambling_par_or_better",
      "condition": "Scrambling from < 10 yards",
      "anchor_sources": [
        "LPGA25-REC",
        "PGA25-130",
        "PGA25-369"
      ],
      "lpga_annual": 0.562138297237635,
      "pga_annual": 0.5968198702938616,
      "pga_conditional": 0.8685299398860177,
      "formula": "expit(logit(LPGA annual)+logit(PGA condition)-logit(PGA annual)+delta)",
      "delta_sensitivity": [
        -0.25,
        0,
        0.25
      ],
      "point_under_shared_odds_contrast": 0.8514015016152356,
      "sensitivity_low": 0.8169226674001315,
      "sensitivity_high": 0.8803381018826018,
      "quality_note": "Both tours use opportunity-weighted published rankings, not official PGA Tour Average. A transferred comparison, not LPGA observed condition data. Assumes same conditional-versus-overall log-odds contrast across tours despite course, distance/lie mixture and eligibility differences. Delta ±0.25 is analyst-chosen stress test, not confidence/credible interval or empirically justified coverage. Scrambling cannot be substituted for arbitrary P(T<=2)."
    }
  ]
}