{
  "asOf": "2026-10-26",
  "evidence": "GD条件付き計算。確率と停止位置は仮定",
  "benchmark": [
    {
      "distance_yards": "80",
      "fairway": "2.75",
      "rough": "2.96",
      "sand": "3.24",
      "recovery": "3.84"
    },
    {
      "distance_yards": "100",
      "fairway": "2.8",
      "rough": "3.02",
      "sand": "3.23",
      "recovery": "3.8"
    },
    {
      "distance_yards": "140",
      "fairway": "2.91",
      "rough": "3.15",
      "sand": "3.22",
      "recovery": "3.8"
    },
    {
      "distance_yards": "160",
      "fairway": "2.98",
      "rough": "3.23",
      "sand": "3.28",
      "recovery": "3.81"
    },
    {
      "distance_yards": "180",
      "fairway": "3.08",
      "rough": "3.31",
      "sand": "3.4",
      "recovery": "3.82"
    }
  ],
  "assumptions": {
    "source": "Broadie (2012), Appendix B, Table B.1, PGA2003–2010 estimated benchmarks",
    "source_url": "https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/pubfiles/4996/assessing_golfer_performance.full.pdf",
    "base_origin": "160yd recovery; current stroke count before decision omitted because common to both choices",
    "safe": "one shot reaches160ydFW with probability1-r; otherwise160ydRecovery; r chosen for sensitivity only",
    "attack_success": "one shot reaches80ydFW unless alternate-lie sensitivity",
    "ordinary_failure": "one shot ends160ydRecovery",
    "OB": "attempted stroke+one penalty; from original position switch to safe plan; total cost2+E_safe",
    "p": "unconditional probability of80ydtarget outcome",
    "q": "unconditional probability ofOB outcome; disjoint from p; p+q<=1",
    "not_calibrated": [
      "actual tree passage success",
      "individual golfer ability",
      "domestic amateur benchmark R",
      "specific course tree geometry",
      "probability of double bogey"
    ],
    "source_R_vs_assumed_outcomes": "Source R comes from estimated historical PGA baselines. Destinations, category selection and p/q/r are explicit hypothetical assumptions, not measured for a particular tree shot."
  },
  "sensitivity": [
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "3.98",
      "required_attack_success": "0.7830188679245282",
      "maximum_possible_success": "1",
      "feasible": "True",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    },
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0.05",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "3.98",
      "required_attack_success": "0.8382075471698117",
      "maximum_possible_success": "0.95",
      "feasible": "True",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    },
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0.1",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "3.98",
      "required_attack_success": "0.8933962264150943",
      "maximum_possible_success": "0.9",
      "feasible": "True",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    },
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0.15",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "3.98",
      "required_attack_success": "0.9485849056603778",
      "maximum_possible_success": "0.85",
      "feasible": "False",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    },
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0.05",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "4.0215",
      "required_attack_success": "0.7438679245283022",
      "maximum_possible_success": "1",
      "feasible": "True",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    },
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0.05",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0.05",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "4.0215",
      "required_attack_success": "0.8010141509433966",
      "maximum_possible_success": "0.95",
      "feasible": "True",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    },
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0.05",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0.1",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "4.0215",
      "required_attack_success": "0.8581603773584909",
      "maximum_possible_success": "0.9",
      "feasible": "True",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    },
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0.05",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0.15",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "4.0215",
      "required_attack_success": "0.9153066037735853",
      "maximum_possible_success": "0.85",
      "feasible": "False",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    },
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0.1",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "4.063",
      "required_attack_success": "0.7047169811320756",
      "maximum_possible_success": "1",
      "feasible": "True",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    },
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0.1",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0.05",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "4.063",
      "required_attack_success": "0.763820754716981",
      "maximum_possible_success": "0.95",
      "feasible": "True",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    },
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0.1",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0.1",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "4.063",
      "required_attack_success": "0.8229245283018871",
      "maximum_possible_success": "0.9",
      "feasible": "True",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    },
    {
      "safe_exit_failure_assumed": "0.1",
      "attack_ob_assumed": "0.15",
      "safe_expected_strokes": "4.063",
      "required_attack_success": "0.8820283018867925",
      "maximum_possible_success": "0.85",
      "feasible": "False",
      "evidence_type": "GD conditional calculation; not observed golfer success rate"
    }
  ],
  "landing": [
    {
      "success_landing_lie": "fairway",
      "success_cost": "3.75",
      "safe_cost": "3.98",
      "ordinary_failure_cost": "4.81",
      "required_success": "0.7830188679245282",
      "feasible": "True"
    },
    {
      "success_landing_lie": "rough",
      "success_cost": "3.96",
      "safe_cost": "3.98",
      "ordinary_failure_cost": "4.81",
      "required_success": "0.9764705882352941",
      "feasible": "True"
    },
    {
      "success_landing_lie": "sand",
      "success_cost": "4.24",
      "safe_cost": "3.98",
      "ordinary_failure_cost": "4.81",
      "required_success": "1.456140350877194",
      "feasible": "False"
    }
  ],
  "onCourseDecisions": {
    "evidence": "GD conditional calculation; not observed strategy effects or personal probabilities",
    "inputs": {
      "tee": {
        "beta": 0.007,
        "period": "Game Golf 2013–2016, majority 2014",
        "distanceSource": "TEE_DISTANCE",
        "driver": {
          "yards": 226,
          "fairway": 45.5
        },
        "threeWood": {
          "yards": 214,
          "fairway": 46.4
        },
        "clubSource": "TEE_ARCCOS"
      },
      "approach": {
        "greenHitFairway": 0.81,
        "greenHitRough": 0.72,
        "population": "Golfmetrics Am2, score band 84–97",
        "distance": "20–60yd",
        "period": "2005–2007",
        "observationSource": "APP_GOLFMETRICS",
        "rough20yd": 2.59,
        "continuationSource": "APP_BENCHMARK",
        "closePuttFt": 5,
        "closePuttValue": 1.24,
        "widePuttFt": 20,
        "widePuttValue": 1.87,
        "puttingSource": "PUTT_BENCHMARK"
      },
      "putting": {
        "referenceHc": 10,
        "shortBinPercent": 96,
        "longBinPercent": 65,
        "observationSource": "PUTT_SHOTSCOPE",
        "controlledLeaveFt": 3,
        "controlledValue": 1.05,
        "leaves": [
          {
            "ft": 3,
            "value": 1.05
          },
          {
            "ft": 6,
            "value": 1.34
          },
          {
            "ft": 10,
            "value": 1.61
          }
        ],
        "benchmarkSource": "PUTT_BENCHMARK"
      }
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "TEE_ARCCOS",
        "title": "Arccos：Driver vs 3 Wood",
        "url": "https://uk.arccosgolf.com/en-jp/blogs/community/3-wood-vs-driver-is-the-accuracy-worth-the-sacrificed-distance",
        "scope": "全HCの距離中央値とFW率。各セルの球数・期間、OBの処理等は十分には公開されていない。同一条件のクラブ交換実験ではない。"
      },
      {
        "id": "TEE_DISTANCE",
        "title": "R&A／USGA Distance Insights：The Value of Distance",
        "url": "https://assets.randa.org/c42c7bf4-dca7-00ea-4f2e-373223f80f76/099206c0-a888-4918-97a3-56c7fd9614a6/R56%20-%20The%20Value%20of%20Distance.pdf",
        "scope": "既存ティー研究S04。Game Golf 2013–2016（主に2014）16万1476打。pp.33–36、距離係数0.007打/yd/ホールを計算の参考に使用。個人が飛距離を伸ばした因果効果や、特定ホールの便益ではない。"
      },
      {
        "id": "APP_GOLFMETRICS",
        "title": "Broadie（2008）：Golfmetrics・20〜60ydから一打で乗る率",
        "url": "https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/pubfiles/2851/broadie_wscg_v_200802.pdf",
        "scope": "既存寄せ研究GD-AS-0531/0533、Table2。2005–2007、Am2は原著スコア帯84–97。FW81％、ラフ72％。球数はセル別非公表。狙い方を無作為に変えた比較ではない。"
      },
      {
        "id": "APP_BENCHMARK",
        "title": "Broadie（2011年4月稿）：20ydラフからの残り打数",
        "url": "https://www.columbia.edu/~mnb2/broadie/Assets/strokes_gained_pga_broadie_20110408.pdf",
        "scope": "既存寄せ研究GD-AS-0477、Table9。2003–2010年PGAの推定基準、20ydラフ2.59打。生の平均や現在の一般アマの実測値ではない。"
      },
      {
        "id": "PUTT_BENCHMARK",
        "title": "Broadie（2011草稿）：距離別の残りパット数",
        "url": "https://www.columbia.edu/~mnb2/broadie/Assets/putting_strokes_gained_20110113.pdf",
        "scope": "既存パター研究historicalExpected。歴史的PGA基準、3ft1.05打、5ft1.24打、6ft1.34打、10ft1.61打、20ft1.87打。2025年や一般アマの実測平均ではない。"
      },
      {
        "id": "PUTT_SHOTSCOPE",
        "title": "Shot Scope：Data with Danny Maude・技量別パット成功率",
        "url": "https://shotscope.com/au/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Ebook-8-Data-with-Danny-Maude_digital.pdf",
        "scope": "既存パター研究SHOTSCOPE_DANNY、p.14。HC10の0–3ft96％、3–6ft65％。距離帯全体の集計で、特定の返しの条件付き確率ではない。収集期間・男女国別・セルNは非公表。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": {
      "tee": {
        "benefit": 0.14,
        "shortPenalty": 0.04081632653061225,
        "longPenalty": 0.22222222222222224,
        "difference": 0.04140589569160996,
        "breakEven": 0.08291222159835299
      },
      "approach": {
        "wide": 2.9419999999999997,
        "close": 2.7800000000000002,
        "success": 2.24,
        "failure": 3.59,
        "difference": -0.16199999999999948,
        "breakEven": 0.4800000000000002
      },
      "approachPenalty": {
        "wide": 2.9419999999999997,
        "close": 3.18,
        "success": 2.24,
        "failure": 4.59,
        "difference": 0.23800000000000043,
        "breakEven": 0.701276595744681
      },
      "putting": {
        "controlled": 1.945,
        "attack": 2.072,
        "difference": 0.127,
        "breakEven": 0.2947761194029851
      }
    },
    "formulas": {
      "tee": "Delta=2*q_long/(1-q_long)-2*q_short/(1-q_short)-beta*extraYards",
      "approach": "Q_wide=1+s*V(20ft)+(1-s)*V(20yd rough); Q_close=1+p*V(5ft)+(1-p)*(V(20yd rough)+penalty)",
      "putting": "Q=1+(1-p_make)*V(miss distance)"
    },
    "assumptions": {
      "tee": "Only OB and successful distance benefit differ. After OB, same policy repeats with an independent identical OB rate. Stroke-and-distance only; no penalty areas, recovery shots or local-rule relief. Regression beta is a reference, not a personal causal effect.",
      "approach": "Specified stops are hypothetical. Every failed wide attempt remains 20yd rough. Failed close attempts either all remain 20yd rough, or all enter water and after one penalty resume 20yd rough. Historical PGA reference values from different papers are placed into a single assumed scene; no observed amateur joint distribution is inferred.",
      "putting": "Initial make rates are hypothetical. All misses in each policy stop at the selected fixed distance. Historical PGA V values, no slope or individual calibration. Shot Scope make rates are context only and not inserted as conditional comeback probabilities."
    },
    "limits": [
      "No personalized success-rate or improvement claims",
      "Mean-stroke comparisons do not identify double-bogey probabilities",
      "Distance/lie aggregate observations are not randomized comparisons of aiming strategies",
      "Small personal samples and differences between practice and course conditions remain uncertain"
    ]
  }
}