{
  "version": 1,
  "kind": "GD条件付き計算。実測・介入効果ではない。",
  "mixture": {
    "purpose": "Show why a capture-rate increase alone does not determine strokes saved",
    "equation": "E = 1 + pG*VG + (1-pG)*VM; solve VM conditionally, then Delta E = Delta p*(VM-VG)",
    "input_provenance": {
      "pG_and_E": "Provider aggregates for same labelled 130–150yd/all-lies table; equivalence of underlying sample sets is an explicit assumption, not proved by microdata",
      "VG": "GD sensitivity grid 1.6–2.2 putts. 1.8 is compatible with Broadie historical PGA 16ft benchmark but NOT measured amateur mean. Grid is NOT a confidence interval."
    },
    "assumptions": [
      "Published strokes-to-finish includes current approach once.",
      "Capture and total mean apply to the same shots/weighting.",
      "The only change is +10 percentage points capture; mean cost within hit/miss states stays fixed.",
      "No change to penalties, distances, putting ability, miss locations or shot selection.",
      "VG grid is hypothetical; VM is algebraically implied, never an empirical recovered miss table.",
      "No target geometry, x/y distribution, optimal aim, intervention effect or individual score forecast inferred."
    ],
    "rows": [
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 0,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.617,
          "E_total": 3.13,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.6,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 2.983812010443864,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 2.9916187989556136,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.1383812010443864,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 0,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.617,
          "E_total": 3.13,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.8,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 2.661618798955613,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.0438381201044384,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.0861618798955613,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 0,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.617,
          "E_total": 3.13,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 2.3394255874673626,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.0960574412532638,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.03394255874673626,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 0,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.617,
          "E_total": 3.13,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2.2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 2.0172323759791113,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.148276762402088,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": -0.01827676240208889,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 5,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.445,
          "E_total": 3.34,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.6,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 2.933333333333333,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.2066666666666666,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.1333333333333333,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 5,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.445,
          "E_total": 3.34,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.8,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 2.7729729729729726,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.2427027027027027,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.09729729729729726,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 5,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.445,
          "E_total": 3.34,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 2.6126126126126126,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.2787387387387383,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.06126126126126126,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 5,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.445,
          "E_total": 3.34,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2.2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 2.452252252252252,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.314774774774775,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.02522522522522519,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 10,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.386,
          "E_total": 3.52,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.6,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.0983713355048863,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.370162866449512,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.14983713355048864,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 10,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.386,
          "E_total": 3.52,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.8,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 2.9726384364820846,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.4027361563517915,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.11726384364820847,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 10,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.386,
          "E_total": 3.52,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 2.8469055374592833,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.4353094462540716,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.08469055374592833,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 10,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.386,
          "E_total": 3.52,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2.2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 2.721172638436482,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.4678827361563522,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.05211726384364819,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 15,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.282,
          "E_total": 3.78,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.6,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.243454038997214,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.6156545961002786,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.1643454038997214,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 15,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.282,
          "E_total": 3.78,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.8,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.164902506963788,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.643509749303621,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.1364902506963788,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 15,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.282,
          "E_total": 3.78,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.0863509749303617,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.6713649025069635,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.10863509749303618,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 15,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.282,
          "E_total": 3.78,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2.2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.007799442896936,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.699220055710306,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.08077994428969358,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 20,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.20199999999999999,
          "E_total": 3.94,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.6,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.2791979949874683,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.7720802005012533,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.16791979949874683,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 20,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.20199999999999999,
          "E_total": 3.94,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.8,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.2285714285714286,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.7971428571428576,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.14285714285714288,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 20,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.20199999999999999,
          "E_total": 3.94,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.1779448621553885,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.8222055137844615,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.11779448621553885,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 20,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.20199999999999999,
          "E_total": 3.94,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2.2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.1273182957393484,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.8472681704260654,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.09273182957393483,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 25,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.168,
          "E_total": 4.16,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.6,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.475,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.9725,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.1875,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 25,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.168,
          "E_total": 4.16,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 1.8,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.434615384615385,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 3.996538461538462,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.1634615384615385,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 25,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.168,
          "E_total": 4.16,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.3942307692307696,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 4.0205769230769235,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.13942307692307696,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      },
      {
        "hc_category_of_input": 25,
        "observed_inputs": {
          "p_green": 0.168,
          "E_total": 4.16,
          "source": "SHOTSCOPE-BOOKLET p8"
        },
        "assumed_mean_strokes_after_green_hit": 2.2,
        "implied_not_observed_mean_after_miss": 3.353846153846154,
        "delta_p_assumption": 0.1,
        "new_total_if_only_green_capture_changes": 4.044615384615385,
        "conditional_reduction_strokes": 0.11538461538461538,
        "classification": "GD conditional scenario; not observed improvement or handicap-specific prescription"
      }
    ]
  },
  "afterMiss": {
    "source": "Broadie2011 Table9 historical fitted benchmark",
    "short_game": [
      {
        "distance_yd": 10,
        "fairway": 2.18,
        "rough": 2.34,
        "sand": 2.43
      },
      {
        "distance_yd": 20,
        "fairway": 2.4,
        "rough": 2.59,
        "sand": 2.53
      },
      {
        "distance_yd": 30,
        "fairway": 2.52,
        "rough": 2.7,
        "sand": 2.66
      },
      {
        "distance_yd": 40,
        "fairway": 2.6,
        "rough": 2.78,
        "sand": 2.82
      }
    ],
    "interpretation": "Costs of specified remaining states, not aim-change causal effects or short-side coefficients"
  },
  "spatialOptimum": null,
  "spatialNote": "初回A/B/Cは未再現で不採用。サイトの狙い比較は座標を仮置きした説明図で、成功率や最適な狙いを算出しない。"
}