[
  {
    "id": "D01",
    "cohort": "all",
    "club": "Driver",
    "kind": "arithmetic_from_published_observation",
    "source": "S07a",
    "band30to40_percent": 11.3,
    "outside40_percent": 10.7
  },
  {
    "id": "M01",
    "cohort": "all",
    "club": "Driver",
    "kind": "conditional_interpolation",
    "source": "S07a",
    "within35_percent": 83.65,
    "monotone_bounds_percent": [
      78.0,
      89.3
    ],
    "assumption": "linear CDF within absolute lateral distance 30-40yd; same observed sample and fairway-centre reference, not actual course survival"
  },
  {
    "id": "D01",
    "cohort": "all",
    "club": "3W",
    "kind": "arithmetic_from_published_observation",
    "source": "S07a",
    "band30to40_percent": 10.4,
    "outside40_percent": 8.4
  },
  {
    "id": "M01",
    "cohort": "all",
    "club": "3W",
    "kind": "conditional_interpolation",
    "source": "S07a",
    "within35_percent": 86.4,
    "monotone_bounds_percent": [
      81.2,
      91.6
    ],
    "assumption": "linear CDF within absolute lateral distance 30-40yd; same observed sample and fairway-centre reference, not actual course survival"
  },
  {
    "id": "D01",
    "cohort": "HC0",
    "club": "Driver",
    "kind": "arithmetic_from_published_observation",
    "source": "S07b",
    "band30to40_percent": 11.0,
    "outside40_percent": 10.2
  },
  {
    "id": "M01",
    "cohort": "HC0",
    "club": "Driver",
    "kind": "conditional_interpolation",
    "source": "S07b",
    "within35_percent": 84.3,
    "monotone_bounds_percent": [
      78.8,
      89.8
    ],
    "assumption": "linear CDF within absolute lateral distance 30-40yd; same observed sample and fairway-centre reference, not actual course survival"
  },
  {
    "id": "D01",
    "cohort": "HC0",
    "club": "3W",
    "kind": "arithmetic_from_published_observation",
    "source": "S07b",
    "band30to40_percent": 9.6,
    "outside40_percent": 7.6
  },
  {
    "id": "M01",
    "cohort": "HC0",
    "club": "3W",
    "kind": "conditional_interpolation",
    "source": "S07b",
    "within35_percent": 87.6,
    "monotone_bounds_percent": [
      82.8,
      92.4
    ],
    "assumption": "linear CDF within absolute lateral distance 30-40yd; same observed sample and fairway-centre reference, not actual course survival"
  },
  {
    "id": "D01",
    "cohort": "HC20",
    "club": "Driver",
    "kind": "arithmetic_from_published_observation",
    "source": "S07c",
    "band30to40_percent": 11.5,
    "outside40_percent": 11.1
  },
  {
    "id": "M01",
    "cohort": "HC20",
    "club": "Driver",
    "kind": "conditional_interpolation",
    "source": "S07c",
    "within35_percent": 83.15,
    "monotone_bounds_percent": [
      77.4,
      88.9
    ],
    "assumption": "linear CDF within absolute lateral distance 30-40yd; same observed sample and fairway-centre reference, not actual course survival"
  },
  {
    "id": "D01",
    "cohort": "HC20",
    "club": "3W",
    "kind": "arithmetic_from_published_observation",
    "source": "S07c",
    "band30to40_percent": 10.8,
    "outside40_percent": 9.3
  },
  {
    "id": "M01",
    "cohort": "HC20",
    "club": "3W",
    "kind": "conditional_interpolation",
    "source": "S07c",
    "within35_percent": 85.3,
    "monotone_bounds_percent": [
      79.9,
      90.7
    ],
    "assumption": "linear CDF within absolute lateral distance 30-40yd; same observed sample and fairway-centre reference, not actual course survival"
  },
  {
    "id": "D02",
    "kind": "ratio_of_fitted_coefficients",
    "source": "S04",
    "equivalent_yards_all_misses": 30.0
  },
  {
    "id": "M02",
    "kind": "interpolated_author_benchmark",
    "source": "S03",
    "distance_yards": 110,
    "fairway": 2.825,
    "rough": 3.05,
    "sand": 3.22,
    "recovery": 3.79,
    "assumption": "piecewise linear between published distances; same historical PGA reference, not an amateur forecast"
  },
  {
    "id": "M02",
    "kind": "interpolated_author_benchmark",
    "source": "S03",
    "distance_yards": 125,
    "fairway": 2.865,
    "rough": 3.0975,
    "sand": 3.2125,
    "recovery": 3.785,
    "assumption": "piecewise linear between published distances; same historical PGA reference, not an amateur forecast"
  },
  {
    "id": "M02",
    "kind": "interpolated_author_benchmark",
    "source": "S03",
    "distance_yards": 150,
    "fairway": 2.945,
    "rough": 3.19,
    "sand": 3.25,
    "recovery": 3.805,
    "assumption": "piecewise linear between published distances; same historical PGA reference, not an amateur forecast"
  },
  {
    "id": "M02",
    "kind": "interpolated_author_benchmark",
    "source": "S03",
    "distance_yards": 170,
    "fairway": 3.03,
    "rough": 3.27,
    "sand": 3.34,
    "recovery": 3.815,
    "assumption": "piecewise linear between published distances; same historical PGA reference, not an amateur forecast"
  },
  {
    "id": "M02",
    "kind": "interpolated_author_benchmark",
    "source": "S03",
    "distance_yards": 190,
    "fairway": 3.135,
    "rough": 3.365,
    "sand": 3.475,
    "recovery": 3.845,
    "assumption": "piecewise linear between published distances; same historical PGA reference, not an amateur forecast"
  },
  {
    "id": "M03",
    "kind": "hcp_interpolation",
    "source": "S06",
    "hcp": 10,
    "distance_band_yards": [
      60,
      100
    ],
    "fairway_green_percent": 63.0,
    "rough_green_percent": 55.6667,
    "bunker_green_percent": 39.6667,
    "assumption": "linear between HCP 8 and 14, no distance interpolation within 60-100yd, no cell-N CI"
  },
  {
    "id": "M04",
    "kind": "conditional_structural_estimate",
    "sources": [
      "S04",
      "S14"
    ],
    "delta_yards": 10,
    "benefit_strokes": 0.07,
    "short_ob_probability_assumed": 0,
    "long_ob_probability_at_break_even": 0.03381642512077295,
    "ob_increase_at_break_even_pp": 3.381642512077295,
    "assumption": "beta is Game Golf reference, not causal; only OB risk differs besides successful forward progress; successful continuation fixed; iid repeats and no local-rule relief"
  },
  {
    "id": "M04",
    "kind": "conditional_structural_estimate",
    "sources": [
      "S04",
      "S14"
    ],
    "delta_yards": 10,
    "benefit_strokes": 0.07,
    "short_ob_probability_assumed": 0.02,
    "long_ob_probability_at_break_even": 0.05249927487189404,
    "ob_increase_at_break_even_pp": 3.249927487189404,
    "assumption": "beta is Game Golf reference, not causal; only OB risk differs besides successful forward progress; successful continuation fixed; iid repeats and no local-rule relief"
  },
  {
    "id": "M04",
    "kind": "conditional_structural_estimate",
    "sources": [
      "S04",
      "S14"
    ],
    "delta_yards": 20,
    "benefit_strokes": 0.14,
    "short_ob_probability_assumed": 0,
    "long_ob_probability_at_break_even": 0.06542056074766356,
    "ob_increase_at_break_even_pp": 6.542056074766355,
    "assumption": "beta is Game Golf reference, not causal; only OB risk differs besides successful forward progress; successful continuation fixed; iid repeats and no local-rule relief"
  },
  {
    "id": "M04",
    "kind": "conditional_structural_estimate",
    "sources": [
      "S04",
      "S14"
    ],
    "delta_yards": 20,
    "benefit_strokes": 0.14,
    "short_ob_probability_assumed": 0.02,
    "long_ob_probability_at_break_even": 0.08291222159835299,
    "ob_increase_at_break_even_pp": 6.291222159835298,
    "assumption": "beta is Game Golf reference, not causal; only OB risk differs besides successful forward progress; successful continuation fixed; iid repeats and no local-rule relief"
  },
  {
    "id": "M04",
    "kind": "conditional_structural_estimate",
    "sources": [
      "S04",
      "S14"
    ],
    "delta_yards": 30,
    "benefit_strokes": 0.21,
    "short_ob_probability_assumed": 0,
    "long_ob_probability_at_break_even": 0.09502262443438914,
    "ob_increase_at_break_even_pp": 9.502262443438914,
    "assumption": "beta is Game Golf reference, not causal; only OB risk differs besides successful forward progress; successful continuation fixed; iid repeats and no local-rule relief"
  },
  {
    "id": "M04",
    "kind": "conditional_structural_estimate",
    "sources": [
      "S04",
      "S14"
    ],
    "delta_yards": 30,
    "benefit_strokes": 0.21,
    "short_ob_probability_assumed": 0.02,
    "long_ob_probability_at_break_even": 0.11143349351709131,
    "ob_increase_at_break_even_pp": 9.14334935170913,
    "assumption": "beta is Game Golf reference, not causal; only OB risk differs besides successful forward progress; successful continuation fixed; iid repeats and no local-rule relief"
  },
  {
    "id": "M05",
    "kind": "exact_one_sided_binomial_upper_limit",
    "source": "S19",
    "n_assumed": 20,
    "events": 0,
    "upper95_probability": 0.13910834066826516,
    "assumption": "independent trials, fixed common risk; not a personal observed sample"
  },
  {
    "id": "M05",
    "kind": "exact_one_sided_binomial_upper_limit",
    "source": "S19",
    "n_assumed": 30,
    "events": 0,
    "upper95_probability": 0.09503385285530419,
    "assumption": "independent trials, fixed common risk; not a personal observed sample"
  },
  {
    "id": "M05",
    "kind": "exact_one_sided_binomial_upper_limit",
    "source": "S19",
    "n_assumed": 50,
    "events": 0,
    "upper95_probability": 0.058155079116972264,
    "assumption": "independent trials, fixed common risk; not a personal observed sample"
  },
  {
    "id": "M05",
    "kind": "exact_one_sided_binomial_upper_limit",
    "source": "S19",
    "n_assumed": 100,
    "events": 0,
    "upper95_probability": 0.029513049607039932,
    "assumption": "independent trials, fixed common risk; not a personal observed sample"
  },
  {
    "id": "M05",
    "kind": "exact_one_sided_binomial_upper_limit",
    "source": "S19",
    "n_assumed": 200,
    "events": 0,
    "upper95_probability": 0.014867039231272083,
    "assumption": "independent trials, fixed common risk; not a personal observed sample"
  },
  {
    "id": "H01",
    "kind": "hypothetical_counterexample",
    "remaining_strokes_distribution": {
      "3": 0.22,
      "4": 0.78
    },
    "mean": 3.78,
    "p_remaining5plus": 0.0
  },
  {
    "id": "H01",
    "kind": "hypothetical_counterexample",
    "remaining_strokes_distribution": {
      "3": 0.61,
      "5": 0.39
    },
    "mean": 3.78,
    "p_remaining5plus": 0.39
  }
]